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China Wonders Who’s Worse: Donald Trump or Kamala Harris?

China US News

US election may trigger tensions, tariffs and trade wars The battle to be the next “leader of the free world” grabs attention across the globe, in democracies and dictatorships alike. The US remains a source of inspiration and exasperation for many countries worldwide, but especially China, the only rival superpower. US officials say the threat now posed by China exceeds that of the Cold War era, when President Truman and his successors defined the “free world” in opposition to the communist bloc. Beijing has supplanted Moscow as Washington’s most pressing foreign policy issue, with multiple domestic implications. “It’s not just the military challenges. It’s across the board. It’s in the Global South. It is in technology,” worries Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell. For China, the US defines power to be matched, and even overtaken. The US is home to the best tech and weaponry, plus enviable economic growth and…

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Riding the Dragon: China’s Stock Market Roars Back Into Life

China Economy

How we got our China equity market calls right In this blog post, we discuss how our analytical process allowed us to identify the most important source of the impulse at play and help our investor clients make money. High time for some good news from the world’s second largest economy? China’s largest stimulus package in years was announced on September 24 and followed by a raft of policy measures, injecting an adrenaline shot into the ailing stock market. In this blog post, we discuss how our analytical process allowed us to identify the most important source of the impulse at play and help our investor clients make money. The policy blitz sparked a record-breaking rally. “This really was China’s ‘whatever-it-takes’ moment to get the equity market going,” Enodo Economics’ Diana Choyleva told Bloomberg TV on September 30. But our clients got this message on September 24 in a report called…

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China Youth Unemployment Soars – Along With Memes of Despair

China Economy

Struggle to find jobs intensifies as China economy slows The rotten-tail kids are lying flat in the garbage time of history. It doesn’t sound good because it isn’t good. As a record number of graduates looked for jobs this summer, China’s youth unemployment rate soared above 17% in July. Young Chinese are taking relief in social media buzzwords highlighting the deep economic and social problems that authorities try to mask with censorship and statistical tweaks. The jobless rate for people aged 16 to 24, a politically sensitive figure in China, hit 21.3% in June 2023. This was a record high. And the rate was expected to worsen in July. So Beijing stopped publishing the numbers. They only restarted in January 2024 with a new measurement method. This produced a more acceptable 14.9% rate for December. The episode deepened worries about the ruling Communist Party’s predilection for trying to boost confidence…

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China Targets Tech at Third Plenum – To Beat Trump or Harris

China US News

China GDP slows in 2024 ahead of Presidential election The chip war between China and the US is heating up after a key planning meeting reaffirmed Beijing’s priority to become a high-tech superpower. The White House is weighing tighter curbs on exports of advanced semiconductor technology to China. And the man trying to recover the US presidency has threatened to impose tariffs on all chips made outside the USA. “When I came to office, the conventional wisdom was that China would inevitably surpass the United States,” said Joe Biden on July 24, in an address to the nation explaining his decision to withdraw from the election race. “That’s not the case anymore,” he claimed. Manufacturing has “come back to America”, while “we’re leading the world again in chips and science and innovation.” Donald Trump will face Vice-President Kamala Harris in the November presidential poll. Whoever wins, the US is likely to…

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China Gears up for Crucial Third Party Plenum

CCP

Will Xi Jinping reveal bold goals for next five years? China and the UK will see the most dollar millionaires depart their shores this year, according to a new survey of migration intentions of the world’s wealthy. The election on July 4 – set to bring a new British government and potentially higher taxes – is one reason the expected 9,500 high-net-worth individuals will leave the UK in 2024. China too has plenty riding on another much-anticipated July event. Could it persuade some of its 15,200 wantaways that the future looks brighter at home? The Communist Party permits no electoral challenge to its rule, which hits 75 years and counting this October. But Beijing strives to convince 1.4bn citizens, and the world, that the Party is always listening to the people and coming up with new ways to serve them better. A major meeting to be held 15-18 July will…

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Beijing Takes Bold Steps to Lift China Property Market

China Economy

Wave of new measures to stabilise Chinese real estate crisis Is this the real deal, finally offering hope for China’s beleaguered housing market – and the world’s second largest economy? Big decisions announced by the central bank on May 17 capped a series of market-boosting measures in recent weeks. And we like what we see, with reservations. The wave of changes re-enforces Enodo Economics’ view that this is a turning point for the China property market. Investors had long hoped the government would step in with its own purchases to prop up a sector which at its peak accounted for a fifth of GDP, but now represents the biggest drag on China’s economy. These “heavyweight policies” mark a “significant historic moment” for the sector, proclaimed China Real Estate Business, a newspaper run by the country’s housing ministry. If you want to learn more about this topic and better understand the…

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China Tech War Expands as US Election Battle Looms

China US News

Xi-Biden call tackles tensions, but Trump waits in wings Flush with the optimism of spring, top officials kicked April off by sounding a hopeful tone for better US-China cooperation. The two presidents held their first conversation since November. And US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen followed up with a China visit that stressed bilateral ties have stabilised amid a litany of divisive issues. Yet underneath the “candid and constructive” talks, and the Biden administration’s denial that it wants to “decouple” from China, the world’s most important bilateral relationship remains in real danger of getting worse. US restrictions on Chinese technology are expanding. Tariff-threatening Donald Trump is, once more, the largest looming risk for US-China ties. Polls show the presumptive nominees (81 and 77) for November’s election neck and neck. Across the Pacific, Xi Jinping faces no formal term limits. He has named no successor. And the odds appear in his favour…

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China’s National People’s Congress: Insights and Implications

CCP

China’s National People’s Congress (NPC), commonly referred to as the Two Sessions with its simultaneous event the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, sets the government’s course of action for the rest of the year. It ended this week, offering little comfort to observers seeking an immediate boost to economic sentiment. This should not have been a surprise. Xi Jinping has communicated his policy priorities clearly since taking office in 2012. With this being the first NPC to take place entirely under the guidance of his hand-picked team, sudden divergence away from his vision was not on the cards. Where observers see economic fires needed to be immediately put out, the government sees security problems to be ironed out through slow adjustment and consolidation. The key lesson of this year’s NPC is that security-led growth is the new normal for China. Balancing Economic Priorities and Security Concerns The government’s commitment to…

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China and US Spar Over Taiwan Elections, but US Elections Pose Bigger Test

Taiwan

Taiwan defies China to choose “destroyer of peace”, the DPP’s William Lai War or peace? Beijing tried to frame Taiwan’s presidential and legislative elections on January 13 as an existential choice between the “destroyer of peace”, Vice President Lai Ching-te of the ruling DPP, and the more China-friendly opposition parties. Voters in the self-ruled island mostly ignored Beijing’s bluster – and chose the status quo. They also broke records, as the DPP became Taiwan’s first party to win a third consecutive term in power. And the DPP’s Huang Jie became Taiwan’s first openly gay legislator. Enodo Economics were on the ground in Taipei to witness another triumph for democracy. We observed efficient, transparent voting and counting, speedy results, and cordial concession speeches. In this blogpost, we explore the implications for Cross-Strait and US-China relations. Who won what? Lai and running mate Hsiao Bi-khim won the presidential election for the DPP.…

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Will China Use Israel-Hamas War To Attack Taiwan?

Taiwan

US and China on opposite sides of two conflicts, amid worries about a third Taiwan is always a top priority when the world’s two most powerful people meet. On November 15, at their first meeting in a year, the US and Chinese leaders talked about the self-ruled island Beijing wants back under its control, by force if necessary. The US should stop arming Taiwan, and support China’s peaceful reunification, Xi Jinping told Joe Biden. “China will realise reunification, and this is unstoppable.” Xi noted he’d heard reports that China was planning for military action against Taiwan in 2027, or 2035, according to a US official. He expressed exasperation at such reports, insisting that there were no such plans and that no one in the Chinese system had talked to him about them, said the official. But Xi also warned, “at some point we need to move towards resolution more generally.”…

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