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Navigating the New Geopolitical Normal

The Great Decoupling

Insights from the Front Lines of Great Power Competition The rules-based international order that defined the post-Cold War era is unravelling before our eyes. What we’re witnessing isn’t a temporary spike in uncertainty but a fundamental shift in the global power structure. As Sir Alex Younger, former head of MI6, told Enodo clients in November 2023: “This is our new normal. The last 30 years were the aberration.” Sir Alex Younger, former head of the British Secret Intelligence Service (SIS), speaking at the Enodo Economics webinar “The New Geopolitical Normal”, 29 November 2023. That assessment, delivered months before many recognised the depth of the transformation underway, exemplifies the calibre of strategic foresight Enodo brings to our clients through exclusive conversations with some of the world’s most informed minds on geopolitical trends and global security challenges. Unlock Critical Insights: Gain exclusive access to Enodo’s game-changing analysis and expert network, and understand…

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The Vanishing Middle: What I Learned Speaking Across Three Continents About US–China Relations

China US News

A blog post by Enodo Economics’ Founder and Chief Economist, Diana Choyleva. Over the past few months, I’ve found myself in a rather unique position—one that’s revealed something deeply concerning about the current state of US–China relations. From moderating energy transition panels in tropical Hainan to discussing geopolitical risks in Beverly Hills, from addressing digital currency futures in Tianjin to delivering a keynote on The Great Decoupling in Paris, I’ve been witness to conversations happening at the highest levels of global decision-making. What stood out wasn’t what was said in each room—but who wasn’t there. Across these global forums, the middle ground is vanishing. And with it, the most vital conversations. If you would like to book Diana Choyleva to speak at your event, please send an inquiry to engagements@enodoeconomics.com   The Alarming Reality: We’re Not Talking to Each Other At the Boao Forum in March, I was moderating a…

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Trade War Retreat:

China US News

The Surprising Shift in US-China Economic Relations The trade war between the world’s two largest economies has taken a surprising turn. After announcing sweeping tariffs of up to 145% on Chinese imports earlier last month, President Trump has begun a tactical retreat that has left markets rallying and analysts scrambling to understand the implications. Unlock Critical Insights: Gain exclusive access to Enodo’s game-changing analysis and understand how this issue will reshape your world. Click below to register for a TRIAL ACCESS to our premium research. The Unexpected Pullback When the second Trump administration announced comprehensive tariffs targeting over 100 countries in early April, with China facing the harshest penalties, global markets panicked. The US had fired what appeared to be a killing shot in the long-running economic conflict between the superpowers, and businesses worldwide braced for devastating consequences. U.S. President Donald Trump speaks during a “Make America Wealthy Again” trade…

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Beyond the Headlines: What China’s Two Sessions Really Means for the Economic Outlook

CCP

Every year, China’s National People’s Congress (NPC) and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference—collectively known as the “Two Sessions”—offer crucial windows into Beijing’s economic and policy roadmap. This year’s gatherings have proven particularly significant as China navigates persistent economic headwinds while simultaneously pursuing ambitious technological advancement. Unlock Critical Insights: Gain exclusive access to Enodo’s game-changing analysis and understand how this issue will reshape your world. Click below to register for a TRIAL ACCESS to our premium research. Walking the Streets of Shanghai: What the Government Work Report Doesn’t Tell You While international media fixated on China’s GDP target of “around 5%” announced in the Government Work Report by Premier Li Qiang, the more revealing stories were unfolding in shopping malls and on city streets across the country. During our team’s visit to Jiangsu province last December—one of countless field trips we make throughout the year—we witnessed something remarkable: local governments…

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DeepSeek R1: How a Chinese AI Company is Rewriting Silicon Valley’s Rulebook

Technology

In the high-stakes world of artificial intelligence, where Chinese companies and US tech giants battle for supremacy, one outlier is challenging conventional wisdom about how breakthrough innovation happens in China. DeepSeek, creator of the ground-breaking DeepSeek R1 AI model, isn’t just pushing technological boundaries—it’s completely rewriting the cultural playbook of how Chinese technology companies operate. Unlock Critical Insights: Gain exclusive access to Enodo’s game-changing analysis and understand how this issue will reshape your world. Click below to register for a TRIAL ACCESS to our premium research. The Maverick Behind the Machine Meet Liang Wenfeng, DeepSeek’s founder and a Zhejiang University mathematics whiz who’s anything but your typical Chinese tech entrepreneur. Before diving into the AI race, Liang built High-Flyer Capital Management, a hedge fund that gave him something more valuable than money: massive computing power and vast data sets. This foundation would prove crucial for training DeepSeek R1 on an…

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China Wonders Who’s Worse: Donald Trump or Kamala Harris?

China US News

US election may trigger tensions, tariffs and trade wars The battle to be the next “leader of the free world” grabs attention across the globe, in democracies and dictatorships alike. The US remains a source of inspiration and exasperation for many countries worldwide, but especially China, the only rival superpower. US officials say the threat now posed by China exceeds that of the Cold War era, when President Truman and his successors defined the “free world” in opposition to the communist bloc. Beijing has supplanted Moscow as Washington’s most pressing foreign policy issue, with multiple domestic implications. “It’s not just the military challenges. It’s across the board. It’s in the Global South. It is in technology,” worries Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell. For China, the US defines power to be matched, and even overtaken. The US is home to the best tech and weaponry, plus enviable economic growth and…

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Riding the Dragon: China’s Stock Market Roars Back Into Life

China Economy

How we got our China equity market calls right In this blog post, we discuss how our analytical process allowed us to identify the most important source of the impulse at play and help our investor clients make money. High time for some good news from the world’s second largest economy? China’s largest stimulus package in years was announced on September 24 and followed by a raft of policy measures, injecting an adrenaline shot into the ailing stock market. In this blog post, we discuss how our analytical process allowed us to identify the most important source of the impulse at play and help our investor clients make money. The policy blitz sparked a record-breaking rally. “This really was China’s ‘whatever-it-takes’ moment to get the equity market going,” Enodo Economics’ Diana Choyleva told Bloomberg TV on September 30. But our clients got this message on September 24 in a report called…

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China Youth Unemployment Soars – Along With Memes of Despair

China Economy

Struggle to find jobs intensifies as China economy slows The rotten-tail kids are lying flat in the garbage time of history. It doesn’t sound good because it isn’t good. As a record number of graduates looked for jobs this summer, China’s youth unemployment rate soared above 17% in July. Young Chinese are taking relief in social media buzzwords highlighting the deep economic and social problems that authorities try to mask with censorship and statistical tweaks. The jobless rate for people aged 16 to 24, a politically sensitive figure in China, hit 21.3% in June 2023. This was a record high. And the rate was expected to worsen in July. So Beijing stopped publishing the numbers. They only restarted in January 2024 with a new measurement method. This produced a more acceptable 14.9% rate for December. The episode deepened worries about the ruling Communist Party’s predilection for trying to boost confidence…

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China Targets Tech at Third Plenum – To Beat Trump or Harris

China US News

China GDP slows in 2024 ahead of Presidential election The chip war between China and the US is heating up after a key planning meeting reaffirmed Beijing’s priority to become a high-tech superpower. The White House is weighing tighter curbs on exports of advanced semiconductor technology to China. And the man trying to recover the US presidency has threatened to impose tariffs on all chips made outside the USA. “When I came to office, the conventional wisdom was that China would inevitably surpass the United States,” said Joe Biden on July 24, in an address to the nation explaining his decision to withdraw from the election race. “That’s not the case anymore,” he claimed. Manufacturing has “come back to America”, while “we’re leading the world again in chips and science and innovation.” Donald Trump will face Vice-President Kamala Harris in the November presidential poll. Whoever wins, the US is likely to…

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China Gears up for Crucial Third Party Plenum

CCP

Will Xi Jinping reveal bold goals for next five years? China and the UK will see the most dollar millionaires depart their shores this year, according to a new survey of migration intentions of the world’s wealthy. The election on July 4 – set to bring a new British government and potentially higher taxes – is one reason the expected 9,500 high-net-worth individuals will leave the UK in 2024. China too has plenty riding on another much-anticipated July event. Could it persuade some of its 15,200 wantaways that the future looks brighter at home? The Communist Party permits no electoral challenge to its rule, which hits 75 years and counting this October. But Beijing strives to convince 1.4bn citizens, and the world, that the Party is always listening to the people and coming up with new ways to serve them better. A major meeting to be held 15-18 July will…

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